The modelOur maths engine. It estimates how likely each player is to hit a stat line, from recent form, ice time and the matchup.
ProjectionOur model's estimate of the number a player actually finishes with. It is an estimate, not a claim that the bookmaker has it wrong.
Over / UnderA bet on a number. "Over 2.5 shots" wins on 3+; "Under 2.5" wins on 0, 1 or 2.
LineThe number the sportsbook has posted for that stat. Comparing it with our projection is the whole point of this page — we do not claim to beat the price.